Nuclear Disarmament Commentary Index
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
COMMENTARY
Published by The Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy, New York
September 1999 Volume 1, Number 4
The Future of the Comprehensive-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
By Lloyd Axworthy, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada
Every man, woman and child lives
under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being
cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness. The weapons of war must be
abolished before they abolish us . . . The logical place to begin is a treaty assuring the
end of nuclear tests of all kinds . . .
- President John F. Kennedy, 25 September 1961
The nuclear age was ushered in with a bang on
16 July 1945. On that day the United States, aided by Canada and the United Kingdom,
successfully detonated the worlds first nuclear device at Alamogordo Desert in New
Mexico. Soon afterward, Canada renounced the option of developing nuclear weapons of its
own, restricting its nuclear activities to the civilian sector; others did not. In the
fifty-four years that have elapsed since that first test was carried out, an additional
2,050 known nuclear tests have been conducted worldwide - an average of one test every
nine days for more than a half century! Together these test detonations generated the
equivalent force of more than 35,000 Hiroshima-size bombs. These facts are alarming; more
alarming still are the end results of nuclear testing.
Through the years nuclear tests have facilitated the development,
production and deployment of massive nuclear arsenals that pose - and will continue to
pose for the foreseeable future - a serious threat to mankinds very existence.
When one ponders the history of nuclear testing and the fundamental
role it has played in nuclear proliferation, it becomes abundantly clear why the
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is rightly considered a seminal achievement
in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. The CTBT, negotiated by the Geneva-based
Conference on Disarmament (CD) and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 10
September 1996, binds its signatories "not to carry out any nuclear test explosion or
any other nuclear explosion, and to prohibit any such nuclear explosion at any place under
its jurisdiction or control."
It also provides for an extensive and intrusive International
Monitoring System (IMS) that will ensure compliance with the Treatys stringent
requirements through an international network of 321 monitoring stations and 16
laboratories, including 15 stations and one laboratory in Canada. These monitoring
stations will be able to detect all explosions greater than one kiloton in the atmosphere,
underwater or underground, anywhere on earth. (While only partially operational, for
example, the IMS was able to identify the 1998 Indian and Pakistani nuclear test
explosions).
The CTBT is
a vehicle that may eventually deliver us to a nuclear free world.
The enormous potential of the CTBT
is clear. A ban on testing will help dampen enhancement of existing nuclear arsenals,
while impeding states with nuclear aspirations from developing nuclear weapons technology
of their own. As such, the CTBT is a vital complement to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which has served as the central instrument for
global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation policy for more than thirty years.
As Minister of Foreign Affairs, I had the privilege of signing the CTBT
on behalf of Canada on 24 September 1996, when the Treaty was opened for signature. At
that time, I remarked that the adoption of the CTBT marked a watershed in building a new
world free from the scourge of nuclear weapons. Three years later I continue to believe
that the CTBT can - and will - make an unambiguous contribution to global nuclear
disarmament and non-proliferation. But much of the Treatys promise remains to be
fulfilled. Although its very conclusion established a strong global norm against nuclear
testing for all nations, the true worth of the CTBT will not be realized until it actually
enters into force.
Strict Requirements for the Treatys Entry Into Force
Regrettably, the exacting and virtually
unprecedented entry-into-force (EIF) provisions have yet to be met. Article XIV.1 of the
CTBT stipulates that the Treaty cannot enter into force until it has been ratified by 44
designated countries possessing nuclear technology. To date, only 21 of these states have
ratified the treaty. Canada is one of the Article XIV.1 nations, and I was proud to
deposit its article of ratification with the United Nations last December.
It is unfortunate that more of the Article XIV nations have not
ratified the CTBT, but it is not surprising. Indeed, Canada foresaw this possibility when
the CTBT was being negotiated. Anticipating that one or more of the 44 countries required
for EIF might not ratify the treaty posthaste, Canada proposed that a conference be
convened if the CTBT had not entered into force three years after its opening for
signature. The proposal was accepted by the international community and was incorporated
into the CTBT as Article XIV.2. Under the Treaty, this process is to be repeated annually,
unless otherwise decided by the preceding Conference.
September 24, 1999, marked the third anniversary of the Treatys
opening for signature. In accordance with Article XIV.2, a conference will be held in
Vienna from October 6-8. This conference will have a two-fold mandate: it will look back
to examine the extent to which the requirements for entry into force have been met; and it
will look forward to consider and decide by consensus what measures consistent with
international law may be undertaken to accelerate the early entry into force of the
Treaty.
The inaugural Article XIV Conference will need to address the wide
variety of reasons why different states have yet to ratify the Treaty: legal or technical
obstacles to complying with Treaty obligations, complex domestic pressures and the
intricacies of diplomatic calculation for example. And the pattern of ratifications is far
from uniform. Of the five NPT nuclear weapon states, for example, all have signed the CTBT
but three have yet to ratify. Three states whose ratification is required for entry into
force have yet to sign the Treaty at all.
Facilitating the Entry Into Force
Clearly, therefore, a single approach to accelerating the ratification
process will not suffice. Canada is optimistic that participants at the Article XIV
conference will address the myriad factors and varying circumstances in reaching consensus
on a series of measures that will expedite ratification. Seeking to ensure the success of
the conference, Canada has already raised a number of technical and political suggestions
that we believe could usefully supplement national initiatives in accelerating the
ratification process. For example, Canada has suggested the establishment of regional
focal points to assist states in establishing the government bodies responsible for
ensuring national compliance with the Treaty. These focal points could also render legal
and technical assistance to signatories in drafting the complex domestic legislation and
regulations that would enable ratification.
China,
Russia and the United States should be vigorously encouraged to complete their articles of
ratification.
Canada is pleased that the
Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) - the body charged with establishing the
CTBTs verification regime - has, over its existence, helped to advance the
ratification process, for example through technical assistance and workshops on
implementation of the CTBT. We would encourage an even greater facilitation role for the
PTS in the future.
National efforts are also of course important. In this respect, I have
written to many of my counterparts in countries that have not signed and ratified the
Treaty, urging them to do so. Canada has also provided practical support to those states
that may face obstacles in making the necessary domestic arrangements for implementation.
In October 1998, I signed on behalf of Canada a Bilateral Facilities Agreement with the
CTBT Organization (CTBTO). This agreement, the first such bilateral facilities arrangement
concluded by a CTBT signatory, authorizes the CTBTO Preparatory Committee to undertake
work on Canadian soil to establish or upgrade Canadas monitoring facilities. We have
distributed our Agreement as a model for other states considering the creation of their
own CTBT National Authorities. Active consideration is also being given to the creation of
a special fund to provide technical assistance in this area to developing countries.
Inter-sessional Mechanisms
Unfortunately, the provision of legal and technical assistance alone
will not be enough to ensure the prompt entry into force of the CTBT; far more difficult
to overcome will be political resistance. While the Article XIV conference will need to
decide on various forms of encouragement and assistance to the ratification process,
Canada is under no illusion that the inaugural Article XIV Conference will manage to craft
solutions to all the various problems that are delaying implementation of the Treaty. We
are concerned that the Conference, which the treaty suggests be convened annually, will
not by itself be sufficient to accelerate CTBT implementation. In Canadas view, some
form of inter-sessional mechanisms will be key to translating the intentions of Article
XIV into reality.
Simple, cost-effective inter-sessional mechanisms have proven effective
in other fora. Canadas proposal for a CTBT counterpart mechanism is the
establishment of a group to meet regularly between Article XIV Conferences to facilitate
exchange of information between members, stimulate discussion of policy issues, provide
for coordination of national activities and allow for planning of joint initiatives such
as visits or seminars. Such a "Friends of the CTBT" group need not be expensive
or logistically difficult, requiring for example no dedicated secretariat. Meetings could
take place in Vienna among representatives of local diplomatic missions accredited to the
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. The formation of such a Contact Group
in Vienna would ensure the timely and effective dissemination of pertinent information
provided by various members.
Another Canadian proposal borrowed from existing fora would be for the
Chair of the CTBT Article XIV Conference to remain in office until the following
Conference. This ongoing Chair could represent the CTBT community in contact with other
countries and organizations, and promote joint activities in consultation with other
member states and through the Vienna Contact Group in following up the conclusions of the
Conference.
In addition to their practical coordinating and consultative roles,
such inter-sessional mechanisms would demonstrate the determination and commitment of the
ratified states to furthering the CTBT entry-into-force process.
Legal Options for Entry Into Force
In the three years since the Treatys signature a number of legal
alternatives for EIF have also been discussed by various experts. One of the alternatives
for example involves a possible "waiver" of the strict EIF requirements by those
states among the 44 who wish to see the Treaty enter into force, at least as it applies to
them, without waiting for complete fulfilment of the Article XIV.1 provisions. The notion
of waiving EIF requirements in order to hasten a treatys implementation is not
unprecedented. In the Treaty of Tlatelolco, for example, nations are afforded the option
to waive - "wholly or in part" - the treatys stringent EIF requirements
and allow it to enter into force for themselves. It is interesting to recall that the
possibility of a waiver was raised (by Australia among others) when the CTBT was being
hammered out in the Conference on Disarmament in 1996. The final CTBT did not provide for
provisional application, but it did not preclude it either. Moreover, such provisional
application is in accordance with Article 25 of the Vienna Convention on Treaties. Other
legal options for partial application could be considered under Article 41 of the Vienna
Convention.
Canada does not, however, consider it necessary to consider such
measures at the upcoming initial Article XIV conference. Nor do we by any means favour
opening up the Treaty in order to seek amendment of the entry-into-force provisions, if
for no other reason than that it would be impossible to restrict potential amendments to
that clause alone, putting at risk hard-won achievements in other parts of the Treaty. In
our view, real progress toward implementation can be made without resorting to legal
manoeuvres of this nature. We acknowledge that such alternatives might eventually prove
necessary, but for now they should be held in reserve while less radical diplomatic and
technical measures are pursued. We are confident that our current approach, that of
patience and perseverence, will be rewarded.
A special
appeal must also be made to India, Pakistan and North Korea, the three Article XIV states
who still have not signed.
Maintaining Momentum
Canada will work unremittingly to ensure that the inaugural Article XIV
Conference provides new impetus for the early entry into force of the Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty; the continued viability and integrity of the CTBT are contingent
upon maintaining momentum to this end. Accordingly, a major objective of the conference
will be to encourage more countries to ratify the Treaty. Nations that have not adhered to
the Treaty must be strongly urged to do so at the earliest possible date. While the
ratification of all states is important, the Conference should emphasize the special
significance that is attached to ratification by those 44 nations named as Article XIV
states. In particular, the three NPT nuclear weapon states that have not ratified - China,
Russia and the United States - should be vigorously encouraged to complete their articles
of ratification. Two nuclear weapon states - the United Kingdom and France - have in fact
already deposited their articles of ratification with the UN and are to be commended. A
special appeal must also be made to India, Pakistan and North Korea, the three Article XIV
states who still have not signed - let alone ratified - the CTBT.
Despite the complexities and difficulties I have mentioned, the message
of the Conference should be a positive one. It has often been said that nothing worth
having is easy to attain, but in turn some things are well worth the struggle. The CTBT is
one of these -- a vehicle that may eventually deliver us to a nuclear free world. We must
spare no effort to ensure its success. Our future, and that of our children, may depend on
it.
* * *
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